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Solutions for reshaping China's power supply and demand structure
Solutions for reshaping China's power supply and demand structure
author:Zheng Guilin publication date:2021-12-09 views:117

China's population accounts for 18% of the world's population, yet coal consumption exceeds 50% of global output, and coal power generation is also close to 50% of the world's. 4.5 billion kilowatts, which far exceeds the global resource supply capacity and environmental carrying capacity, and is an insatiable demand.

My country's power supply and demand structure is based on the controllability of coal-fired power generation, which is a "supply-side dominant" model. In recent years, with the large-scale development of green energy, its pricing acquisition system and grid access adjustment method are still dominated by the thinking of thermal power grids. At the peak of electricity consumption in 2021, 17 provinces across the country will implement orderly power supply (power rationing), which will affect industrial production and residents' lives. These phenomena show that the structural contradiction between power supply and demand needs to be resolved urgently. 

The "peak carbon" and "carbon neutral" actions are essentially a call for structural changes in energy production, consumption and energy technology. It is suggested that the structural reform of energy supply and demand should start from the following three aspects:

1. Large-scale local consumption of green energy is the key to changing the structure of electricity supply and demand

In countries that have pioneered energy transformation (such as Germany and the United Kingdom), the use of wind-solar-based green energy accounts for about 43%, which is in the intermediate stage (more than 45% is in the advanced stage), and my country currently accounts for less than 10%, which is in the primary stage of energy transformation. From a technical point of view, in 2020, the proportion of wind power in the State Grid and the South Grid has reached 9.75%, which is close to the upper limit of the 10% consumption capacity, which is also the main reason for a large number of abandoning green power. By 2030, if the proportion of green electricity in China's energy system increases by another 30%, it means that it has the ability to absorb more than 40% of green energy and reaches the intermediate stage of energy transformation.

Since the large power grid with thermal power as the main body has structural difficulties in increasing the proportion of green power, it is necessary to change the supply and demand structure of power distribution. Green power consumption no longer depends on the large power grid, and the construction of a distributed and local consumption green power system has become the main body. , forming a new structure of energy transformation with the support of the large grid platform and the independent consumption of the micro grid.

At the same time, start the large-scale development of "ocean wave energy" in China's 3 million square kilometers of sea area as soon as possible, add a new variety of large-scale green energy that can be dispatched day and night, and build a zero-carbon power grid in the coastal power load center area. The structural shift is significant.

2. Large-scale construction of "intelligent demand-side response" (ADR) is the key to realizing the "dual-mode operation" system of micro-grid and large-scale power grid, and is the most effective way to change the structure of power supply and demand

My country's technology and application level in the field of "ADRAutomatic Demand-side Response" (ADRAutomatic Demand-side Response) system characterized by energy management and control Internet of Things and artificial intelligence technology has developed to the international leading level of convenience, efficiency and economy, and can undertake Solving the important task of power and energy structure transformation has the following characteristics:

According to big data forecast, efficiently coordinate the balance of supply and demand, cut off specific loads, realize power staggered peaks and valleys, and load balance;

The dual-mode power supply mode with local green power consumption priority, only when the local green power does not meet the power demand, intelligently switch to the large power grid without inductance, so as to achieve the local consumption of green power, the support and backup of the large power grid, Let the microgrid play the main role of the demand side in stabilizing the balance of supply and demand;

Use the blockchain transaction system to realize the dynamic value transaction and the most economical operation of power grid electricity;

"The greater the load, the greater the energy storage" to achieve dynamic optimal utilization of massive power resources;

Realize the dual-mode and refined management and control of the power demand side of thousands of households, ever-changing, and varied, and improve the governance capacity of national energy consumption. Transform the power grid supply pattern with the large power grid as the core into a new power supply and demand structure dominated by flexible and intelligently controlled demand-side response, and enter an efficient era of resource security, dynamics and refinement.

3. Improve the energy efficiency of equipment and achieve efficient energy utilization on the demand side

At present, the energy consumption per unit of GDP in my country is 1.5 times that of the world average and 3 times that of developed countries, so there is a lot of room for energy efficiency improvement. Among them, many of the "high-energy-consuming enterprises" in electric power are advantageous links in my country's complete industrial chain. It is impossible to close them all. It is necessary to take the road of technological progress to significantly improve energy efficiency. In addition to paying attention to the initiative during the construction period, the industrial and civil building fields In addition to measures to control energy consumption and emissions, focus on the issue of "fine management and control of energy consumption during operation". Promote the ultimate energy saving through standards and regulations, improve the energy efficiency of industrial equipment, urban air conditioning, heating and other core power loads, get rid of all the inefficiency equipment caused by commercial monopoly, construction design system laziness, and continuous penetration of the industry. Equipment and equipment with high energy efficiency and ultra-high energy efficiency are the leading ones, and a batch of low-efficiency products in use will be eliminated.

For the municipal system, in addition to the improvement of the electrical equipment itself, the operator's personal ability has become a bottleneck. Practice has proved that the Internet of Things (IoT) artificial intelligence (AI) can completely transcend the limitations of human beings and achieve the whole system through continuous learning of the four big data of energy consumption. Significant improvement in energy efficiency.

At present, the innovative technology of online energy consumption dynamic operation and maintenance AIOT management and control has matured. If it is introduced into all walks of life in a timely manner, it will surely show excellent results in reshaping China's power energy supply and demand structure system, and the collected energy big data system will also greatly Improve the active fire safety guarantee system and become the basis for the dynamic operation of the digital twin city; its popularization and application also create core "meta" data for the current energy big data dynamic analysis and decision-making, energy asset audit transparency, carbon footprint measurement and trading; The Dual Carbon goal is the most timely and most powerful support.

[Appendix 1] ADR is the technology and system for building a large-scale virtual power plant (VPP).

In the case of the realization of the power "intelligent demand side response" (ADR) technology, on the premise that the original "supply side" power plant capacity remains unchanged, the user side, that is, the "demand side", adopts an orderly electricity consumption mode through digital intelligent management and control. ——Remove some secondary electrical equipment——Adjust the electric energy in proportion to the scale of the main demand, which is the large-scale virtual power plant (VPP, Virtue Power Plant) deployment of demand-side energy.

Mature case: Wuhan University has continuously implemented overall flexible and intelligent power distribution for new and existing apartment buildings since 2014. At present, more than 10,000 student apartments have achieved ADR, and one (each) air conditioner (about 1.5 hp, 1.2 kW), vacated 12 MW of electricity at one time, which is equivalent to 1/4 of the school's electricity consumption. During the peak electricity consumption period in the city, it is guaranteed that the school's electricity consumption will not exceed the power supply quota while other electrical appliances are available in the student apartment. It has provided a guarantee for the electricity consumption for teaching and scientific research. It has been successfully operated for 7 years with remarkable benefits.

If this case is used in a county-level city in Jiangsu, where there are 300,000 households, each household is rated at 7 kW, and the maximum regulated energy is about 2,000 MW. When the peak electricity consumption is used to regulate this part of the electricity to industrial production, the resulting Virtual Power Plant (VPP), equivalent to the installed capacity of two Shanghai Jinshan Power Plants. Economically still taking the above-mentioned county-level city as an example, the transformation investment of 300,000 households is 1.5 billion (5,000 yuan per household) to realize a virtual power plant of 2,000 megawatts of electricity. In contrast, the direct cost of a physical power plant is equivalent to 6 billion (not considering the land). and other factors), showing that the economic benefits of virtual power plants are significant. At the same time, virtual power plants not only cut off the electricity consumption of physical power plants, but also switch to local green power consumption in time, realizing nearly 100% utilization of green energy. It is of great significance to ensure that every energy-using equipment can participate in the balance of energy supply and demand without producing coal-fired carbon emissions.

[Appendix II] ADR+VPP Distributed Green Energy Consumption Mode

In the field of energy research, the energy transition stage is defined by the proportion of variable wind and solar power generation in a country's power generation. my country actually accounts for 10%, which is in the initial stage of energy transformation (below 15%), while Germany has accounted for more than 45% and has reached the advanced stage. Referring to the experience of developed countries, the way to increase the proportion of renewable energy lies in distributed local consumption.

ADR+VPP is the basis for the distributed consumption of various local green energy, and realizes nearly 100% utilization of green energy. It is the key to realizing a benign energy storage structure with an equivalent supply and demand balance of "the greater the power load, the more power storage".


By 2030, if more than 30% of the power load on China's energy demand side can be dynamically managed and controlled by artificial intelligence (AI), that is, to the level of smart microgrids with "intelligent control demand side response" (ADR) of the power grid, it can directly The ability to absorb unstable and clean energy has increased to more than 40%, reaching a medium stage, which will change the current energy supply structure and reduce the overall national grids dependence on thermal power generation. In other words, taking the structure shown in Figure 1 as an example, if the proportion of thermal power generation is reduced from 71.9% to 31.9%, it will directly achieve carbon peaking and pave the way for carbon neutrality.

[Appendix 3] The new technology of "AC zero-crossing arc-free intelligent relay protection switch" invented by domestic independent innovation

This is the "AC zero-crossing arc-free intelligent relay protection switch" (referred to as "arc-free intelligent control switch") independently invented in the field of electric power application in recent years, which has achieved a major breakthrough in the field of electric power application - arc-free relay For protection and switching, "busbar wiring" can be used to save a lot of copper cables and space; it can switch between the power grid and green electricity quickly and without inductance; embedded edge computing, integrating "network + computing + storage + application on the demand side" "Integrated, energy-using equipments form the Internet of Things; 4. Energy-using data is uploaded to the cloud, and mobile terminals are displayed and controlled; 5. Artificial intelligence learns from energy-using big data to precisely control and operate equipment beyond the limitations of human physical capacity. Integrating "strong current + weak current + fire protection + perception", in addition to the huge safety and reliability advantages of 100 times longer life than traditional electrical switches, a new generation of high-performance ADR flexible intelligent power distribution can be constructed without increasing the cost of power distribution projects system, and truly comprehensively improve the energy efficiency of the comprehensive system of energy-consuming equipment. Its application scenarios are quite extensive.

For example: First, in terms of the transformation of the power grid structure, it is possible to switch between the power grid and green power instantly and without inductance, which solves the pain point that the previous switch could not be switched safely, reliably, frequently and in a timely manner, and greatly improves the green power local consumption ratio;

Second, in industrial production, taking electrolytic aluminum, industrial ceramics, glass fiber reinforced plastics and other high-energy-consuming industries as examples, the use of artificial intelligence-controlled "smart" switches to intermittently supply power will save 30%-50% of electricity under normal production conditions. , the technology and equipment as the core development has the Internet of Things distributed "electromagnetic steam generator" to replace the coal-fired gas boiler, which is also of great significance for the response to the heat demand side.

Third, in the field of civil buildings, the five energy supply states of "water, electricity, gas, heat, and cold" will be controlled by the Internet of Things as a whole, and the energy consumption of a single device will be greatly reduced by systematically optimizing the energy consumption mode. At present, in the field of civil construction, taking the case of a super high-rise hotel in Guangzhou, the energy efficiency (EER) value of a single air-conditioning equipment can be increased from only 1.8 in the old machine room to 5.8 in the overall system, so that the actual operation efficiency of building air-conditioning can reach the international ultra-high efficiency. level, reducing building air-conditioning costs by more than 60%.

Fourth, in terms of urban safety governance, the classification construction of strong electricity, weak electricity and fire protection is transformed into an overall flexible intelligent power distribution system, and the trinity of "strong electricity + weak electricity + fire protection" is integrated, so that the building has the integrity of the DNA of a smart building. Greatly improve the safety management level of buildings and cities - historical data shows that at present, my country's electrical system has always been independent of the main fire protection system of buildings, so that electrical fires, which account for about 67% of urban fires, have become blind spots for security and fire protection. The construction will transform the traditional situation of "passive elimination" into "active prevention" pattern, which will definitely improve the comprehensive management level of the city.

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