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Academician Du Xiangwan: The dual carbon goal will bring new investments, new technologies, new industries, new transportation, new buildings, and new energy
Academician Du Xiangwan: The dual carbon goal will bring new investments, new technologies, new industries, new transportation, new buildings, and new energy
author:Suntrans publication date:2021-12-17 views:63

On December 3, the 2021 Sina Finance Golden Kylin Forum ESG Summit was grandly held with the theme of "ESG Investment Helps Sustainable Development of Enterprises".

The summit brought together more than 30 prominent guests from politics, business and academia who are concerned about ESG development to discuss 7 topics including ESG investment empowering high-quality development and the high-quality development of enterprises under the "dual-carbon" goal. Du Xiangwan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, was interviewed by Sina Finance in the "Roundtable Discussion: Carbon Neutrality Reshaping the New Industry Bureau". He said that China is still a developing country, and the significance of developing countries putting forward the dual-carbon goal is that we can use low-carbon and innovation to promote China's sustainable development at this stage of development in a timely manner, and implement low-carbon transformation. The form of social civilization can gradually move from industrial civilization to ecological civilization, which is an inevitable trend of historical development. It is necessary to understand the energy revolution and our two goals from the perspective of the general pattern and the form of human civilization. At the same time, the realization of the dual-carbon goal will force us to adjust the industrial structure and restrain the impulse to develop high-energy-consuming industries in a timely manner. Now some high-energy-consuming industries, after decades of development, have reached a relatively saturated level, and cannot rely on the development of these high-energy-consuming industries, especially cannot rely on such impulses to guard future recovery. It is necessary to promote strategic emerging industries, high-tech industries, and modern service industries, drive a huge amount of green financial investment, and bring new economic growth points and new employment opportunities to support high-quality development.

"The carbon peak is not about rushing to the peak, it is not about going up to any peak and then coming down." He said that the carbon peak is aimed at carbon neutrality, and our understanding of the goal of carbon peak before 2030 must be proposed by the country. Combining some other indicators in 2030, for example, the carbon emission intensity in 2030 will be reduced by more than 65% compared with 2005. We need to promote the gradual reduction of carbon emission intensity to achieve the peak, and if this peak can be lower, we will move towards the future. The conditions for carbon neutrality will be better, and the cost of going carbon neutral in the future will be less. Du Xiangwan emphasized that low-carbon transformation and ensuring energy security go hand in hand. The two-carbon goal will greatly promote energy conservation and improve energy efficiency, and at the same time vigorously develop non-fossil energy, steadily reduce fossil energy, and build a new power system with new energy as the main body. At present, the amount of coal our country needs is relatively large. Implementing low-carbon transformation at this stage will allow us to benefit more in terms of energy efficiency. The efficiency of coal use is still limited, and there will be greener and more efficient energy guarantees. Our energy supply and demand security and environmental security. He also pointed out that the realization of the two-carbon goal is a complex systematic project and a scientific transformation process. We must grasp the rhythm and actively promote the realization of the two-carbon goal, but we must advance it steadily and prevent There are two tendencies. One is to prevent simplification and one-size-fits-all. This is not a movement, but a very detailed and complex system engineering. At the same time, it is necessary to prevent backwardness and ineffective investment due to ineffective transformation. Failure to transform will result in everyone making progress, and China is lagging behind. "Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality are the propositions of the times. We are participating in the global exam, moving from the era of industrial civilization to the era of ecological civilization, and it is the test of human civilization. China cannot fall behind. History allows us to get good grades, let us Let's work together." Du Xiangwan finally said.

The following is the full text of the speech:First of all, congratulations on the convening of Sina Finance's 2021 Annual Meeting and Golden Kylin Forum. I will spend a few minutes here to communicate with you a little bit. I will report some of my understanding of the two-carbon goals that you are concerned about for your reference. The two goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality proposed by the country last year are of great significance. What do I know next? First, China is still a developing country. What is the significance of developing countries putting forward the dual carbon goal? We can use low-carbon and innovation to promote China's sustainable development in a timely manner at our current stage of development, and implement low-carbon transformation. The form of our social civilization can gradually change from industrial civilization to ecological civilization. This is a historical inevitable trend of development. The low-carbon transition is now very important to the sustainable development of our country. More than 200 years ago, human beings discovered the utilization of fossil energy (coal, oil, gas), which was a huge progress and a round of energy revolution, which made human beings enter industrial civilization from farming civilization. Now we are facing a new energy revolution. The development of non-fossil energy will gradually lead mankind from industrial civilization to ecological civilization. We must understand the energy revolution and our two goals from the perspective of the general pattern and the form of human civilization. This picture is for everyone to see. It is drawn by the original data of the World Bank. The horizontal axis is the per capita GDP of each country, which represents the development level of the country. The vertical axis is carbon dioxide emissions per capita. As soon as this picture is drawn, we think it is very interesting. Whether it is the United States, Canada, or some developed countries such as Europe and Japan, in the early stage of their development, with the increase of per capita GDP, per capita energy consumption is increasing. It is such an upward increase the curve. But at a certain time, this curve will be flat, that is to say, its economy will continue to develop, and its per capita GDP will continue to increase, but its per capita energy consumption will no longer increase. This means that there is such an inflection point when the development reaches a certain point. What does it mean? As the economy continues to develop, the per capita energy consumption will no longer increase, and the increase in energy and economic development can be decoupled. This inflection point is important. In this picture, the United States and Canada are at the top, while Europe and Japan have also reached a level of development that can be compared with them. The per capita GDP has reached more than 40,000 US dollars, but the per capita energy consumption of Europe and Japan is lower than that of countries such as the United States. times. This is very important. The United States and Canada are a development method with high energy consumption and high emissions, while Europe and Japan are a relatively low-carbon and relatively low-emission development method. Therefore, we cannot speak of developed countries in general. In this sense, there are two types of very different (development methods), the difference is doubled, which is of great reference value for our country. We should not take the per capita emissions and per capita energy consumption of the United States as targets and benchmarks, but (countries) such as Europe and Japan, which are relatively low-carbon and relatively low-energy consumption, and can also achieve modernization. There is a small red line here in China. At the beginning of this century, we developed (rapidly), and the (line) was shaking. Later, we adjusted the development method. Now we are in a place of 10,000 US dollars per capita, which is similar to that of Europe and Japan of 10,000 US dollars. The time level is about the same. When we reach the carbon peak in 2030, we will probably be able to emit 8 tons of carbon per capita, which will reach the current level in Europe, which is now 7.1 tons per capita. Give you this concept. Therefore, we will now guide a low-carbon development idea, which is both necessary, sustainable and feasible for China.

The second point of understanding is that the realization of the dual-carbon goal will force us to adjust the industrial structure and restrain the impulse to develop high-energy-consuming industries in a timely manner. Now some high-energy-consuming industries have reached a relatively saturated level after decades of development. We cannot rely on the development of these (high-energy-consuming industries) all the time, especially we cannot rely on such impulses to guard the recovery after the epidemic. It is necessary to promote strategic emerging industries, high-tech industries, and modern service industries, drive a huge amount of green financial investment, and bring new economic growth points and new employment opportunities to support high-quality development.

The third point, we proposed the 30/60 goal, and some comrades also mentioned that we are still developing countries, is it in line with the "community principle" to deal with climate change? "Community" is the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. In fact, developed countries have already reached their peaks, and they should have reached their peaks. We now propose to reach the peaks by 2030. Developed countries are now proposing that they will reach their carbon peak by 2050 at the latest, and some are a little earlier, and we are a little later than them, which reflects a difference. But China is still a very responsible big country. We not only embody the "common region", but also demonstrate the positive attitude of a responsible big country to deal with climate change.

Fourth, the carbon peak is not about rushing to the peak, it is not about going up to any peak and then coming down. The carbon peak is aimed at carbon neutrality. Our understanding of the goal of carbon peak before 2030 should be combined with some other indicators proposed by the state in 2030. For example, the carbon emission intensity in 2030 will be 65% lower than that in 2005. % or more, it is very clear that we need to promote the gradual reduction of carbon emission intensity to achieve the peak, and if this peak can be lower, the conditions for us to move towards carbon neutrality will be better in the future. The price will be smaller, and there must be such an understanding of carbon peaking.

Fifth, the dual carbon goals are two milestones in the energy revolution. The two-carbon goal will greatly promote energy conservation and improve energy efficiency, and at the same time vigorously develop non-fossil energy, steadily reduce fossil energy, and build a new power system with new energy as the main body. The energy revolution was proposed in 2014, and the dual carbon goals are two milestones of the energy revolution. The relationship between the two is as follows. In this figure, the curve above is the total emissions of the country. We can see that the horizontal axis is time. The total emissions rose rapidly in the first ten years of this century. Since 2013, the curve has begun to slow down. Figure The drawdown period above. We will now continue to guide this slowing period, and after several years of hard work, let it reach a peak and not increase, which is called peaking. At present, our country needs a large amount of coal. What effect will the implementation of low-carbon transformation have on our country at this stage? To make us benefit more from energy efficiency, the efficiency of coal use is still limited, and there will be greener and more efficient energy guarantees to ensure our energy supply and demand security and environmental security. Therefore, it is necessary to make it clear that low-carbon transformation and ensuring energy security go hand in hand.

Sixth, achieving the dual carbon goal requires a new understanding of our country's energy resource endowment. When we talk about our country's energy resource endowment, we often hear the words "rich coal, lack of oil, and lack of gas". In fact, these six words can no longer accurately describe our country's energy resource endowment, because it is only It means that our country's fossil energy is "rich in coal, lacking in oil, and lacking in gas". If we only understand this, we will not see that there is still a large piece of energy resources that are non-fossil energy in our energy resource endowment. If the understanding is not comprehensive, it will affect our country's energy policy and energy strategy. Abundant non-fossil energy resources, especially renewable energy resources, are an important part of our country's energy resource endowment. The solar and wind energy developed by our country today are less than 1/10 of the technically developable resources. , that is, we must have non-fossil energy resources and renewable energy resources to develop it vigorously, and we must have a new and comprehensive understanding of the country's energy and resource endowments. In this way, we implement low-carbon transformation, and the resource base is rich. Yes, be aware of this. What can be developed now, like photovoltaics and wind power, is related to its cost reduction and technological progress. And renewable energy, one is very rich in resource endowment. In addition, technological progress also brings cost reduction and economic growth. Therefore, at the beginning of this century, four words (descriptions) such as solar energy and wind energy are "insignificant", and we will put forward another four words after analysis, which will definitely grow up and "important". Now everyone can see that both wind power and photovoltaics can play an important role, but now for renewable energy, it is not just that it plays a pivotal role, but the other four words "take a big responsibility". Inside, we have to take up this burden, can we take up this responsibility, and face such a situation. China's central and eastern and western regions are not balanced. Our main power load and energy load are in the central and eastern regions. The central and eastern regions develop electricity and energy. How can we meet the energy and power needs of the central and eastern regions? It is necessary to combine "take from around" and "come from a distance". When people talk about the east, they think of "transmitting electricity from the west to the east." However, there are abundant renewable energy resources in the east. First of all, we need to use the renewable energy resources around us. This is to "take it around", and if it is not enough, "come from a distance". The two must be combined. At the same time, it is necessary to combine distributed and centralized. For decades, we have realized a centralized large-scale power grid. Large-scale power grids will still be needed in the future, but distributed ones must also be developed, especially in the central and eastern regions. And "distributed" to improve the self-sufficiency rate of energy in the central and eastern regions, this is a very basic idea. And the calculations of our different expert groups show that the same kilowatt-hour of electricity, if the east is taken from the side, produces one kilowatt-hour of electricity, which is cheaper and more economical than the west-to-east electricity delivery, and they have published papers. Therefore, the central and eastern regions with heavy power load can combine "come from around" and "come from afar". And when you have electricity around you, you can produce and sell it directly, which can be used by the people, and you can combine this with energy storage to cultivate a large number of producers and sellers. Consumer, you can also produce energy yourself. For example, BIPV, which combines photovoltaics with buildings, can also generate electricity by itself. This not only increases the local energy self-sufficiency rate, independence, and safety, but also alleviates the impact of a high proportion of renewable energy on the large power grid. Because if they are all centralized and go online together, it will have an impact on the large power grid. If you turn it into many small micro-grids and consume it yourself, the impact on the large power grid will be small.

Eighth, (to achieve) the two-carbon goal, our country has to overcome many difficulties, and overcoming these difficulties is precisely to make up for the shortcomings of our country's development. What are the difficulties? To be sure, first, industry is more important; second, energy is more coal; third, efficiency is low; fourth, for decades, we have become accustomed to high-carbon development, and everyone has a relatively large inertia on the path of high-carbon development. If we overcome these points, it is precisely the shortcoming of our development, the implementation of new ideas, and the realization of new development. The meaning is very clear. The characteristics of China are marked by the Hu Huanyong line on the map. The area of ​​the central and eastern regions is half of the country's territory, but the population accounts for 94%. We consume more than 50% of global coal consumption annually on this land. How big is this piece of land, we can easily calculate the coal consumed per unit of land area. We call it the "spatial density of coal consumption", which is 15 times the global average, so that we can feel the seriousness of the problem . Why should our air quality and our carbon emissions be reduced gradually? It has something to do with this, as the General Secretary said, we have to do it ourselves, not who asked us to do it. The number of cars owned by every thousand people is still a fraction of that in the United States. Their car ownership is about 800 cars per thousand people, and we have more than 200 cars. However, the density of cars in our eastern part has exceeded that of the United States, because the eastern The population density is about eight times that of the United States. Such a country's conditions are very basic data, and we all have to know it. Ninth, the vigorous development of energy technology innovation provides strong support for the realization of the dual carbon goal. (The picture above) lists some new technologies, because the dual-carbon goal cannot be achieved only by using current technologies, especially carbon neutrality, which must rely on innovation, and innovation is king. I have listed some directions for technological innovation. Tenth, the realization of the two-carbon goal is a complex systematic project, a scientific transformation process, and highly policy-oriented. We must grasp the rhythm and actively promote the realization of the two-carbon goal, but we must proceed steadily. It needs to prevent two tendencies. One is to prevent simplification and one-size-fits-all. This is not to engage in sports. This is a very detailed and complex system engineering. It is necessary to prevent one-size-fits-all and simplification. At the same time, it is also necessary to prevent backwardness and ineffective investment from ineffective transformation. This is also a simplification. Without transformation, everyone is making progress. China cannot fall behind in such a state. Therefore, if the transformation is not effective, it will bring us backward and ineffective investment. We must fully understand these problems, do good things well, and profoundly promote economic and social reform and progress. In short, the carbon peak is the peak of high-quality economic development at the same time, and the peak of industrial structure optimization and technological progress that leads to the gradual reduction of carbon intensity. Carbon neutrality is a new engine for our country's economic and social development. We need to create a path that combines cost-effectiveness, economic benefits and social benefits. It is a low-carbon economic and social transformation, profound Such a milestone of progress. Regarding carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the Academy of Engineering has also done some preliminary research. The fields of industry, electricity, transportation, and construction can probably reach their peaks before 2030, and these peaks will probably increase by 5 to 7 years compared with 2020. 100 million tons, the peak is about 10.5 billion to 11 billion tons of carbon dioxide. In the process of achieving the carbon peak, we must do our best to achieve the top-level design and roadmap for carbon neutrality. We must realize that the dual-carbon goal is based on our national conditions, and at the same time, it is the goal formulated by the new awareness of the progress of human civilization. Concerning the sustainable development of the Chinese nation and building a community with a shared future for mankind, carbon neutrality calls for in-depth technological innovation and financial support. You are opening this forum today, and I also hope that various entrepreneurs and experts related to Sina Finance will make their own contributions in this regard. The dual carbon goal will bring new investment, new technology, new industry, new transportation, new building, new energy, all in all, a new way of development, which will profoundly promote economic and social progress, and realize the economic and energy development of our country. , environment, climate win-win, is such a big event. Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality are the propositions of the times. We are participating in the global exam, from the era of industrial civilization to the era of ecological civilization, and it is the test of human civilization. China cannot fall behind. History allows us to get good grades, let us all Work together.

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